Posts

07 Dec 2022
10-Campaign Narrative
In this blog post, I discuss how candidates campaigned in California’s 22nd District and explore whether the campaign c...
22 Nov 2022
09-Post-Election Reflection
In this blog post, I will assess the accuracy of my models and discuss why my models were wrong in some respects. The d...
07 Nov 2022
08-Final Prediction
Overview of Method Similar to Bafumi et al. (2018), my model consists of two steps. First, I predict the Democratic pop...
26 Oct 2022
07-Shocks
In this blog post, I will discuss why a pooled model is more appropriate than fitting a regression for each district, i...
19 Oct 2022
06-The 'Ground Game'
Probabilistic Models In Blog Post 05, I built two models: in the first model, I predicted the popular vote share at the...

2022 Congressional Midterm Elections Forecast